Macro tailwinds fade, SS futures struggle to rise in the futures market [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

According to SMM data, the most-traded SS contract showed a strengthening and upward trend this week. As of 10:30 on August 1, the SS2509 contract was quoted at 12,855 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt WoW.

From a macro perspective, the consensus reached during the third round of high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US held in Stockholm, Sweden, from July 28 to 29, saw both sides agreeing to extend the suspended tariff measures for another 90 days, without resolving core differences. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time. Powell's stance was hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks outweighed employment goals, and he did not provide guidance on an interest rate cut in September, stating that "the current policy stance is favorable" and that more data was needed to support adjustments. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee clarified the deepening of the "anti-rat race" policy: to regulate low-price and disorderly competition in accordance with the law, and advance capacity governance in key industries (such as steel and PV), supporting expectations for supply-side reform of industrial products.

On the fundamental side, stainless steel spot prices rose slightly this week. Recently, driven by macro tailwinds, the stainless steel market saw an increase in retail quotations, moving away from the five-year low, with market confidence restored and transactions improving compared to the previous period. Social inventory of stainless steel completed four consecutive weeks of decline. However, the market remains in the traditional consumption off-season, with transaction volumes still strongly influenced by changes in the futures market. In the absence of further macro tailwinds recently, the SS futures market struggled to rise, repeatedly failing to stabilize above 13,000 yuan/mt. There is still a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and subsequent developments will depend on the introduction of further policies and the recovery of demand.